Playoffs Payoff

It seems that every year scouts use the playoffs as a tool of measuring which prospects are ahead of others. You hear "if this guy has a good playoffs" arguments all the time. Yet, should these increases in offensive production warrant considerable attention? Does a player just get hot and fade after the playoffs, or is a players true character revealed when everything is on the line? For our answers lets look no further then last years race between Taylor Hall and Tyler Seguin.

During the 2010 Taylor Hall was scoring at a rate of 40 goals and 66 assists for 106 points in just 57 games played to put Hall at 1.86 points/game. What really makes things interesting is that his playoff production sat at pretty much the exact same offensive output. During the playoffs Taylor put up 17 goals and 18 assists for 35 points in just 20 games. This translate to 1.84 points per game. Tyler Seguin on the other hand had the same 106 points in 63 games. His 1.68 points/game ratio was only slightly behind halls but he did manage to score 48 goals. Heading into the playoffs however, Seguin was "shutdown" with only 5 goals and 5 assists for 10 points in 9 games. At the end Seguins 1.11 P/G was much lower then Taylor Halls 1.84 P/G and was ultimately a deciding factor come draft day.



In addition to the two top selections in 2010, the current frontrunner for the Calder, Jeffrey Skinner saw his draft stock soar with playoff success. Although Skinners 50 goal regular season saw him scoring at a 1.4 P/G ratio, he turned things up in the playoffs considerably. Skinner saw playoff success that amounted to 20 goals and 13 assists for 33 points in just 20 playoff games. He raised his points/game ratio to 1.65 despite playing tougher competition night in and night out. To put this in perspective he was ranked 15th by iss before the playoffs started yet was drafted 7th overall by the Carolina Hurricanes.

On the other side of things, Taylor Hall's teammate Cam Fowler didn't have the greatest post season despite winning the memorial cup. Fowler showed off his skills by posting 55 points in 55 points with the Spitfires in the regular season with a +38 rating. His play in the playoffs however consisted of 3 goals and 11 assists for 14 points in 19 games. His 0.74 P/G was much lower then his 1.00 P/G in the regular season. With his drop in play, Fowler saw his draft ranking fall all the way to 12th overall by the Anaheim Ducks. Yet, he is now in the NHL and has made a name for himself with 37 points in 71 regular season games.

So what is this years crop looking like? Well here is a quick rundown of how the top ten ranked players are currently doing in the playoffs (or at least the possible top ten). I put in Mark McNeill right now but it could easily turn into Tyler Biggs, Joel Armia, Mika Zibanejad, Nicklas Jensen, Nathan Beaulieu, etc. I have then compared this to the regular season production. If this wasn't the case then Adam Larsson would rank last on both lists.

Playoffs:
1. Jonathan Huberdeau (QMJHL): 4GP 5G 7A 12P 3.00P/G
2. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (WHL): 4GP 4G 5A 9P 2.25P/G
3. Sean Couturier (QMJHL): 4GP 3G 5A 8P 2.00P/G
4. Gabriel Landeskog (OHL): 4GP 5G 2A 7P 1.75P/G
5. Dougie Hamilton (OHL): 4GP 1G 5A 6P 1.50P/G
6. Ryan Murphy (OHL): 4GP 1G 5A 6P 1.50P/G
7. Mark McNeill (WHL): 4GP 2G 3A 5P 1.25P/G
8. Ryan Strome (OHL): 4GP 1G 2A 3P 0.75P/G
9. Duncan Siemens (WHL): 4GP 0G 1A 1P 0.25P/G
10. Adam Larsson (SEL): 12GP 0G 3A 3P 0.25P/G

Regular Season:
1. Ryan Strome (OHL): 65GP 33G 73A 106P 1.63P/G
2. Sean Couturier (QMJHL): 58GP 36G 60A 96P 1.65 P/G
3. Jonathan Huberdeau (QMJHL): 67GP 43G 62A 105P 1.56 P/G
4. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (WHL): 69GP 31G 75A 106P 1.54 P/G
5. Ryan Murphy (OHL): 63GP 26G 53A 79P 1.26 P/G
6. Gabriel Landeskog (OHL): 53GP 36G 30A 66P 1.25 P/G
7. Mark McNeill (WHL): 70GP 32GP 49A 81P 1.16 P/G
8. Dougie Hamilton (OHL): 67GP 12G 46A 58P 0.87P/G
9. Duncan Siemens (WHL): 72GP 5G 38A 43P 0.60P/G
10. Adam Larsson (SEL): 37GP 1G 8A 9P 0.24P/G

Risers and Fallers:

1. Jonathan Huberdeau +1.44 P/G
2. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins +0.71P/G
3. Dougie Hamilton +0.63 P/G
4. Gabriel Landeskog +0.50 P/G
5. Sean Couturier +0.35
6. Ryan Murphy +0.26 P/G
7. Mark McNeill +0.09P/G
8. Adam Larsson +0.01P/G
9. Duncan Siemens -0.35P/G
10. Ryan Strome -0.88P/G



Its pretty obvious that right now the biggest riser is Jonathan Huberdeau by a large margin. Even though RNH has been the talk of the town in the WHL and is second in leauge scoring in the playoffs, Huberdeau has been unbelieveable thus far. You could argue that the 16th placed team in the WHL is stronger then the QMJHL (which I wouldn't be surprised at all) but you can't discredit his playoff statistics regardless. As far as fallers go I wouldn't be surprised if Ryan Strome falls off the map a bit while Siemens doesn't even make the top 10 if their play continues this way. If playoffs are indeed a major contributing factor, then I could see RNH be taken ahead of Landeskog, Couturier and Larsson. It would also be true that Huberdeau is taken ahead of Strome, Murphy and Hamilton.

As far as picks outside the top ten go, the biggest surprises would included Shane McColgan who is leading the WHL in playoff scoring with 3 goals and 7 assists for 10 points in 4 games played despite just falling shy of a point per game pace in the regular season. In addition the QMJHL has a couple surprises with Zack Phillips scoring at 3.00 P/G and Phillip Danault producing at 2.00 P/G despite having considerably lower totals in the regular season. If these three players continue to be playoff monsters you would have to think that their draft rankings will be much higher then they currently are.

At the end of the day the playoffs have affected players draft statuses, but it is not always warranted. Too many times have players not made the playoffs or had "meh" playoffs only to catch fire afterwards. As much as the playoffs can help you raise your draft stock, a poor playoff shouldn't hurt a players draft stock. A player may not help his cause in the draft, but it shouldn't hinder it either. This just goes to show that as much as scouts like to use the playoffs as tool when determining who should be drafted,

(pictures courtesy of life.com, ontariohockeyleague.com and stationnation.blogspot.com)