NHL: Were Not As Good As You Think We Are

(picture courtesy of myhodgepodge.files.wordpress.com)

It's actually kind of funny how once Edmonton goes on a three or four game winning streak how fans start to think that we are no longer going to get one of the top four players of the draft. I'm here to tell you that it is VERY unlikely that this is the case and we even have added room for optimism.

Now these standings may seem a bit backwards, but I assure you that as an Edmonton Oiler fan they are the only standings that matter ;)

1. Edmonton Oilers- 54P
2. Ottawa Senators- 55P
3. Colorado Avalanche- 60P
4. New York Islanders- 62
-----------------------------
5. Florida Panthers- 63P
6. New Jersey Devils- 64P
7. Atlanta Thrashers- 65P
8. St. Louis Blues- 67P
9. Toronot Maple Leafs- 68P
10. Columbus Blue Jackets- 70P
11. Carolina Hurricanes- 71P
12. Anaheim Ducks- 75P
13. Nashville Predators- 76P
14. Minnesota Wild- 77P
-----------------------------
15. Buffalo Sabres- 72P
16. New York Rangers- 74P
17. Los Angeles Kings- 77P

It might seem weird to see both Buffalo and NYR with less points but higher in the standings. This is because both teams play in the eastern conference and are still holding down a playoff spot. The draft, as it is now setup, takes this into consideration. First the bottom 14 teams in the leauge (the 7 worst teams from each conference) are ranked and given draft selections according. The losers of the first round of the playoffs are then awarded their draft position (based on regular season rankings). The same is then true for the second round, the third round and of course the stanley cup final. So essentially if a team like Buffalo somehow beats Boston or Philly in the first round, they actually jump ahead of teams that lose in the first round.

Any way you break it down, it makes a big difference if Los Angeles makes the playoffs or not. Not only do they have a chance to take the pick that is currently at 17th overall to become the 30st overall pick, but if they miss the playoffs they jump behind teams like the Rangers and Sabres. It is still highly possibly that LA finishes somewhere between 12th-14th in the upcoming draft. If you ask me, this pick alone is pretty much fair value for a guy like Dustin Penner.

As far as the Edmonton Oilers pick goes, they still have 15 games left on the season. However unlikely that is a potential 30 points that they could finish with 84 points. Given that the magic number for the playoffs looks to be 96-97 points... its virtually impossible to make the playoffs. Although this should come as no surprise, it still remains to be seen how likely it is that they wind up outside the top 4 selections.

Obviously Edmonton has a rough schedule ahead of them and have to continously face the top teams of both conferences, lets look at the magic number for one of Sean Couturier, Gabriel Landeskog, Sean Couturier, or Adam Larsson. The New York Islanders currently have 62 points. If you keep them at the same point production of 0.925 points/game that would come to 75.8 points. That means that Edmonton would have to finish with 76 points to surpass the Panthers if they maintain their current streak. To put things into perspective that means that Edmonton would have to collect 22 points in their final stretch. Essentially the Oilers would have to go 11-4-0 in order to finish outside the lottery sweepstakes.