Patience Young Swede

Lets face it, Oiler fans are spoiled. I say this because we have seen how quickly a kid like Taylor Hall or Jordan Eberle can jump into the lineup without slowing down offensively. I would even argue that we were spoiled when Sam Gagner made the jump right to the NHL. Sure, we are being patient with most of our other prospects but why is it that Edmonton Oiler fans expect that all of our first rounders to make the NHL immediately and produce.


(picture courtesy of communities.canada.com/edmontonjournal)

I bring this up because of the constant bashing I hear about Magnus Paajarvi. The kid is an unbelieveable talent that is still putting up decent numbers in the NHL, the problem is that they aren't quite as good as the young phenoms that Edmonton has been blessed with. Anyways, I'm hear to tell you that this is only natural for a swedish player. In fact, it is the exception that someone comes over from sweden and produces almost instantly. The only real cases I could find of this were Nicklas Backstrom (selected 3rd overall), Anze Kopitar (11th overall) and Erik Karlsson (selected 15th overall). Hell, even the leauge leading sedins that were drafted number 2 and 3 respectively took 5+ years to really break into the leauge. Victor Hedman was drafted 2nd overall and is still looking to take his game to the next level at the NHL.

I have compiled a list of swedish players that were drafted in the first round that are considered NHL regualars as well as the busts over the past 10 years. It should be noted that I did not include anyone drafted behind Magnus Paajarvi. These include Jacob Josefson, Tim Erixon, and Marcus Johansson. He is easily ahead of both Josefson and Erixon and is putting up better numbers then Johansson. It should be noted that the average length for a player coming from the SEL is about 4-5 years before they really contribute at the NHL level.

Daniel Sedin (2nd overall):
Year 1 (SEL): 19G 26A 45P
Year 2 (NHL): 20G 14A 34P
Year 3 (NHL): 9G 23A 32P
Year 4 (NHL): 14G 17A 31P
Year 5 (NHL): 18G 36A 54P

Victor Hedman (2nd overall):
Year 1 (NHL): 4G 16A 20P
Year 2 (NHL): 3G 21A 24P
*Has yet to take the next step*

Henrik Sedin (3rd overall):
Year 1 (SEL): 9G 38A 47P
Year 2 (NHL): 9G 20A 29P
Year 3 (NHL): 16G 20A 36P
Year 4 (NHL): 8G 31A 39P
Year 5 (NHL): 11G 31A 42P
Year 6 (SEL): 14G 22A 36P
Year 7 (NHL): 18G 57A 75P

Nicklas Backstrom (3rd overall):
Year 1 (SEL): 12G 28A 40P
Year 2 (SEL): 14G 55A 69P

Oliver Ekman-Larsson (6th overall):
Year 1 (Swe-1): 9G 18A 27P
Year 2 (NHL): 1G 10A 11P
*Has yet to take the next step*

Magnus Paajarvi (10th overall):
Year 1 (SEL): 12G 17A 29P
Year 2 (NHL): 10G 16A 26P
*Has yet to take the next step*

Anze Kopitar (11th overall):
Year 1 (SEL): 8G 12A 20P
Year 2 (NHL): 20G 41A 61P

Lars Eller (13th overall):
Year 1 (SEL): 12G 17A 29G
Year 2 (AHL): 18G 39A 57P
Year 3 (NHL): 7G 8A 15P
*Has yet to take the next step*

Erik Karlsson (15th overall):
Year 1 (NHL): 5G 21A 26P
Year 2 (NHL): 12G 28A 40P

Nicklas Bergfors (23rd overall):
Year 1 (AHL): 17G 23A 40P
Year 2 (AHL): 13G 19A 32P
Year 3 (AHL): 12G 15A 27P
Year 4 (AHL): 22G 29A 51P
Year 5 (NHL): 21G 23A 44P

Mikael Backlund (24th overall):
Year 1 (Swe-1): 4G 4A 8P
Year 2 (AHL): 15G 17A 32P
Year 3 (NHL): 1G 9A 10P
Year 4 (NHL): 8G 10A 18P
*Has yet to take the next step*

Alexander Steen (24th overall):
Year 1 (SEL): 5G 10A 15P
Year 2 (SEL): 10G 14A 24P
Year 3 (SEL): 9G 8A 17P
Year 4 (NHL): 18G 27A 45P

Mattia Tedenby (24th overall)
Year 1 (SEL): 3G 1A 4P
Year 2 (SEL): 12G 7A 19P
Year 3 (NHL): 7G 9A 16P
*Has yet to take the next step*

Patrik Berglund (25th overall):
Year 1 (Swe-1): 21G 24A 45P
Year 2 (NHL): 21G 26A 47P
Year 3 (NHL): 13G 13A 26P
Year 4 (NHL): 18G 27A 45P
*Has Plateaued, still waiting to make the next step*

Niklas Kronwall (29th overall):
Year 1 (SEL): 1G 9A 10P
Year 2 (SEL): 5G 7A 12P
Year 3 (SEL): 5G 13A 18P
Year 4 (AHL): 2G 11A 13P
Year 5 (AHL): 13G 40A 53P
Year 6 (NHL): 1G 8A 9P
Year 7 (NHL): 1G 21A 22P

*Draft Busts* Jens Karlsson (2001), Lars Jonsson(2000), Martin Samuelsson (2000), Fredrik Sjostrom 2001), Jonas Johansson (2002), and Robert Nilsson (2003), Christofer Lofberg (2005), Dennis Persson (2006), Anton Gustafsson (2008)

Just for fun I thought I would also bring up the statistics and progression of a player like Henrik Zettberg. He is after all one of the best that Sweden has produced but it took the Detroit Red Wings a long time to do so. Yes, he was drafted way later in the draft but it still goes to show that patience can go a long way.

Henrik Zetterberg (210th overall):
Year 1 (SEL): 15G 31A 46P
Year 2 (SEL): 10G 22A 32P
Year 3 (NHL): 22G 22A 44P
Year 4 (NHL): 15G 28A 43P
Year 5 (SEL): 19G 31A 50P
Year 6 (NHL): 39G 46P 85P

Any way you break it down, the whole "Swedish players play against grown men and can handle the NHL" argument is overblown. Sure, they might be able to handle the NHL but it does not mean that they are going to be able to come in and produce at both ends of the ice. Over the past 10 years only three SEL players were able to come in and produce in their second year after being drafted. The Oilers did not have a chance to draft any of these three players and right now MPS is looking to be the best player available at his respective draft position.


(picture courtest of thepipelineshow.blogspot.com)

Just be patient and wait a few years before we run a kid out of town. He is going to be money for us down the road. I would also like to point out that if Edmonton does indeed draft Adam Larsson this summer, fans probably shouldn't expect anything to amazing in his first season. He would be lucky to put up 20 points coming directly out of the SEL (i.e. similar numbers to Victor Hedman). Even Nicklas Lidstrom played an extra two years after his draft year in the SEL before coming over to the NHL. That leads me to believe that we won't really see a dominante Larsson until his third year with the team. I'm not saying Edmonton shouldn't draft Larsson but odds are he will take a while to develop- something that shouldn't be a problem for a team doing a full rebuild.