2011 NHL Entry Draft

Saturday, March 26, 2011

Shootout: The Loser Point



For all the talk about the shootout being a joke and taken out of the game, I decided to do a little bit of research to see if these opinions were warranted. So far this season we have had 270 shootouts. I have outlined what the quick overview of the eastern conference shootouts vs the western conference shootouts (wins versus losses):

Eastern Playoff Teams: 39-32
Eastern Non-Playoff Teams: 25-33

Western Playoff Teams: 41-31
Western Non-Playoff Teams: 30-39

At first we can see the the playoff teams have a much better shootout record record. In addition, teams in the west seem to be better at the shootout thus far with 71 shootout wins over the 64 eastern conference wins. But is this jump large enough to suggest that the shootout is causing good teams to miss out of the playoffs. If we just look at playoff teams vs. non-playoff teams we have a combined number of:

Playoff Teams: 80-62 (56% winning percentage)
Non-Playoff Teams: 55-70 (44% winning percentage)

The average person would say "Holy crap the playoff teams are better in the shootout." But this doesn't change the standings if this is the case. If we compare the regular winning percentage to shootout percentage we will see that the original conclusion is wrong.

Playoff Teams: 587 Regulation Wins
Non-Playoff Teams): 393 Regulation Wins

Given that the playoff teams have almost 1.5 times the regulation wins that the non-playoff teams have, suggesting the shootout helps playoff teams seems far-fetched. If anything non-playoff teams are benefiting from the shootout. The 8% increase from playoff teams from non-playoff teams in the shootout is actually a lot less then we should be expecting. Don't get me wrong, a team like Los Angeles is benefiting with their 9-2 record in the shootout. Without the SO they would be without a playoff spot. Their will always be teams that are relying too heavily on the shootout, but as a whole the shootout wouldn't have a very big effect on NHL standings.

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